Recently, the Russian government approved the exemption of export tariffs on pollock fillet, frozen Pacific sardines and some processed shellfish products to ease the pressure on the aquaculture industry. According to Decree No. 1482 of November 2, the exemption will come into effect on November 10, in response to calls from various industry groups to promote the development of the Russian fisheries industry.

In September, Russia introduced new export tariffs for the first time on some goods, including aquatic products, which are linked to the ruble's exchange rate against the dollar and are scheduled to last until the end of 2024. Currently, the tariff standard for November is 7 percent and will be adjusted monthly based on the exchange rate. In addition, as early as February 2024, the Russian government approved a tariff exemption for some canned fish and a small number of other aquatic products produced in the Kaliningrad region.

Several industry groups strongly opposed the planned extension of tariffs on fish exports, including the Russian Fishing Boat Owners Association, the All-Russian Fisheries Association (VARPE), the Pollock Fishing Association and the Crab Fishing Association. The groups have sent letters to the Agriculture Ministry and both houses of the Russian Federal Parliament urging the government to stop the tariff extension, noting that the tariffs are burdening the industry. Although the new law has exempted some aquatic products, it does not specify the exemption period, so that the industry's concern that the government may extend the tariff in the future has not been completely eliminated.

According to VARPE, if the tariffs are extended beyond 2025, the Russian seafood export market will come under great pressure. VARPE expects Russia's seafood exports to increase to about $8.85 billion by 2030, but the European market share will decline from $779 million (14.9 percent) in 2023 to $570 million (6.5 percent), with more exports shifting to emerging markets. However, there may not be a significant increase in pollock prices throughout 2024. According to industry observation, the expected price of single-frozen pollock fillet in 2025 A season is relatively stable, and in late October, the price of pollock head and tail (CFR China) of more than 25 cm was stable at $1340 to $1350 per ton, which has risen significantly from the previous low of $1010 per ton.

Nevertheless, Russian fisheries industry groups agree that the extension of export tariffs will have a negative impact on the entire industry. According to the data of the Russian Fishing Boat Owners Association, from January to September 2024, the export volume of Russian aquatic products fell by 17% compared with the same period last year, and the total value of exports fell by 14%. If the tariffs are extended, the fisheries industry is expected to lose 45 billion rubles (about $464 million) due to tariffs in 2025, and profit margins will fall below 2%, which will make it difficult for fisheries companies to pay debts and meet investment commitments in new fishing vessels and processing plants under the government's investment quota program.

The Russian Fishing Boat Owners Association believes that the tariff policy has not only failed to promote domestic sales, but has become an obstacle to exports, especially for processed aquatic products. The association called on the government to remove tariffs to promote the healthy development of the industry and restore export growth. In March 2024, the Fisheries and Aquatic Products Committee of the Union of Russian industrialists and entrepreneurs recommended exempting frozen cod, pollock and their products, deep-sea crabs and other products from export tariffs, and the government also expressed support for exempting some aquatic products at that time. However, as the Ministry of Agriculture prepares to submit a draft for the extension of tariffs until 2025 and beyond, the Russian fisheries industry still faces major policy uncertainties.