Multiple sources believe that the price of imported shrimp in the United States may have bottomed out and showed signs of a rebound.

According to March data, U.S. shrimp imports decreased 23% and 33%, respectively, from a year earlier, while the average price of shrimp fell 13% from a year earlier to $8.24/kg, although the unit price of imports increased 1.85% month-on-month (source: NOAA).

"The U.S. shrimp import industry is still in the process of normalizing," Urner Barry analyst Angel Rubio told UCN. "I'm not sure if prices are at the bottom, it's just one data point. Given the 'runaway' import data for 2022, prices are likely to bottom out sometime this year. In the future, price increases are likely to be modest, with the trend gradually moving into 2024. But it's still going to be a tough year for producers with high borrowing costs. Likewise, importers and distributors face low profit margins."

According to Rubio, rising global production, particularly in Ecuador, remains the main driver of rising prices, and only some external event, such as disease or a blockbuster marketing campaign, can spur rapid price increases.

Jim Gulkin, managing director of Siam Canadian, a global seafood trading company, noted that shrimp stocks in the United States are rapidly depleting.

"We are hearing that cold storage in the US is not fully loaded and many are actively looking for new customers. We are approaching a point where US importers, retailers and wholesalers must consider restocking. Although we see some fluctuations in the price of origin, most pricing is based on or below the cost of production, which will stimulate price increases to some extent once the end market demand comes up. So I think we're in the last phase of the market weakness and for all intents and purposes we've bottomed out." Gulkin said.

Donelson Berger, vice president of Sea Lion International in the United States, also believes shrimp prices have bottomed out.

"Shrimp prices have really bottomed out, the market is at a trade low and there are still some sellers holding 2022 stock and selling it at a discount. We still have a long way to go before costs and selling prices return to normal, with large inventories in 2022 soaking up the fresh air of the market recovery." "Berger said.

Alfred Nasti, director of U.S. shrimp sales for BMR Seafood Group, expects a real turnaround in the shrimp market in August. For now, the United States is still feeling the pressure of a broad economic malaise, from banking to fuel, from labor to consumer confidence. "So, I think in general August is when importers start to come back to life."