Prices of beef, pork, and chicken should continue to rise in 2025, but at different rates.Meat prices rose by a cumulative 14.8% between January and November 2024, higher than the broader Consumer Price Index (IPCA, 4.29%) for the same period. Experts note that changes in the livestock cycle and the continuation of high export levels will drive meat prices higher.

Brazilian newspaper Folha de Estado de São Paulo (FESP) reported that in the recently published IPCA-15 for December, inflation was driven precisely by higher prices for rump-tip (+9.02%), tenderloin (+8.33%) and pork (+8.14%). According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the inflation index was 0.34% in December, down from 0.62% in November. Year-to-date inflation has accumulated at 4.71%, above the upper limit of the 4.5% inflation target.

Jo?o Fernandes, an economist at Quantitas, said, "We are in a cycle of reduced slaughter of female livestock, which will be an ongoing dynamic throughout 2025, pushing up the price of beef."

Quantitas expects beef prices to rise by 8 percent in 2025, taking into account cyclical factors (changes in the livestock cycle) and macroeconomic factors (such as exchange rates and interest rates).

In addition, exports will continue to be hot. According to data provided by Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), Bureau of Foreign Trade (Secex), beef exports reached 2.948 million tons in 2024 as of November, an increase of 30.84% year-on-year.

External demand is sustained by China and the United States, whose production has been decreasing while global supply is falling. "The trend is upward because our competitors don't have enough product." Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Meat Exporters Association (Abiec), said, "We are competitive and can offer meat products and even increase production."

The rise in the dollar exchange rate has made exports more attractive to meat makers, says Quantitas' Fernandez: "Exports have become more profitable, reducing domestic supply and raising prices."

At the same time, domestic consumption is expected to fall, especially in the second half of the year, as beef prices will rise and purchasing power typically declines. "Domestic (beef) consumption is expected to fall by 6 to 7 percent next year. Consumers will turn to cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork." Rabobank meat analyst Wagner Yanaguizawa said.

This substitution will also have an impact on prices: greater demand for chicken, pork and eggs will push up the prices of these products.Quantitas expects prices for poultry meat and eggs to rise by 5.5%, in line with the 2025 IPCA, while pork is expected to rise by 5.9%.

According to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), per capita consumption of chicken is expected to grow by 2.2% to 46.6 kilograms in 2025, while pork will stabilize at 19 kilograms.

The growth in exports of these proteins will help keep the market adjusted so that there is no room for prices to fall. In order not to lose too much space in the domestic market, the beef industry will tend to "improve competitiveness with other proteins," although it will face cost pressures, Yanagisawa emphasized.

Chicken and pork, however, will see their profit margins improve with the expected increase in consumption. "These proteins will be able to adjust their prices more flexibly and capitalize on the growth in beef to gain market share. This trend should continue especially in early 2025 as consumers tend to opt for more affordable products." Rabobank analysts said.

Quantitas' Fernandez believes that incomes and labor markets should remain high to sustain consumption in early 2025.