According to the "2023 New Zealand Apple and Pear Semi-annual Report" released by the USDA, due to the damage caused by Hurricane Gabrielle, New Zealand's apple production and exports in the 2022/23 season are expected to decline sharply, falling to 453,000 tons respectively and 270,000 tons, the lowest level since the 2009/2010 season. The decline in export expectations will make the New Zealand apple industry prioritize high-end markets such as the mainland of China, Taiwan, and Vietnam to offset the losses caused by the decline in production, and replace old varieties with varieties preferred by the Asian market.

After Cyclone Gabriel hit in early February, New Zealand's apple harvestable area has been drastically reduced to 8,900 hectares from 10,300 hectares last year. The worst-hit regions, Hawke's Bay and Gisborne, are New Zealand's largest apple growing and exporting regions, accounting for about two-thirds of the country's production. The strong winds and heavy rains that accompanied the hurricane caused severe landslides and flooding, which damaged extensive orchards and infrastructure, and left large accumulations of silt over large areas.

According to the latest statistics from the New Zealand Apple and Pear Industry Association (NZAPI), 840 hectares of apple orchards in Hawkes Bay were completely destroyed; Floods have flowed through, and the fruit trees have been soaked. Some apples can still be harvested, but the harvest is reduced. about a quarter of the apple trees in the region were destroyed, and nearly a quarter of the apple tree harvest was severely affected.

Although the Hawke's Bay and Gisborne regions have been affected by cyclones, in other growing areas such as Nelson in the South Island (Nelson), this year's apple growing is in near optimal conditions. At the same time, the return of overseas workers after the end of the new crown epidemic restrictions, the ideal harvest season weather, and the investment in innovation made in the past few seasons have driven the automation of a large number of farm and packhouse jobs. Production in 2022/23 is forecast at 453,000 tonnes, down 12% from 2021/22 and the lowest since 2009/10. As the fruit trees replanted in recent years have begun to enter the full fruit production period, it is not ruled out that the total production may return to the level before the epidemic.

New Zealand's apple harvest season lasts from January to June, with the peak harvest period from March to May. The hurricane hit at the beginning of the harvest season, and a large number of apples had not yet been harvested. The reduced production of orchards in Hawke's Bay will significantly reduce New Zealand's apple exports to the global market. Exports this season are forecast at 270,000 tonnes, down 21% from the 2021/22 season and the lowest level in more than a decade.

Despite the devastation in Hawke's Bay, neighboring Napier Port continues to operate and ship apples to global markets. In March, exports from the Napier port fell 17% from the previous month in the wake of the hurricane. Apples shipped from the Port of Napier to overseas markets usually account for 61% of New Zealand’s total apple exports, followed by Tauranga (Tauranga) at 17%, and the South Island ports of Nelson and Dunedin (Dunedin) usually each account for 40% of the annual export volume. 14% and 4%.

Due to the expected decline in export volumes, it is expected that the New Zealand apple industry will prioritize more high-end markets to ensure maximum export revenue, thereby offsetting losses caused by reduced apple production this season. Asian markets such as the mainland of China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand typically import the highest value apples from New Zealand, while Europe and India import the lowest value apples.

In recent years, the industry has adopted a strategy of replacing older, lower-priced apple varieties such as Braeburn with higher-yielding apples, particularly those favored by the Asian market. This varietal switch is expected to accelerate as growers in Hawke's Bay rebuild damaged orchards. With the industry still recovering from the woes of the current season and labor shortages caused by the pandemic, the replanted varieties are expected to have higher unit values. As a result, older varieties such as Royal Gala and Braeburn are likely to see significant declines in New Zealand's apple acreage, while pricier varieties such as Rockit, Envy, Danshuo Dazzle and Pink Lady saw increases in acreage.