According to the 2023 South African Citrus Annual Report released by the US Department of Agriculture, despite extreme weather events such as flooding and hail, as well as multiple challenges such as increasing agricultural input costs, soaring freight costs, and infrastructure inefficiencies, South Africa's production of all citrus varieties is expected to grow in the 2022/23 season, with the exception of grapefruit. The production of other varieties will also reach a new high.

Fresh orange

There are currently about 96,277 hectares of citrus orchards in South Africa, of which oranges account for about 45%. The area under cultivation of oranges reached 45,123 hectares in 2020/21, but has decreased by 3% to 43,668 hectares in 2021/22. Due to significant orange conversion in the growing areas of the Western Cape and Limpopo provinces, the area under orange cultivation is expected to grow by only 0.5 per cent to 43,900 hectares in the 2022/23 season.

As above-average rainfall throughout the season in the main producing areas ensured adequate irrigation water and created growing conditions conducive to higher yields, orange production in the 2021/22 season increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 1.51 million tonnes. Orange production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase to 1.63 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year. Hail and strong winds caused damage in the Western Cape, followed by heavy rains in the Eastern Cape, which may have reduced production, but other orange-growing areas enjoyed good weather conditions and ample irrigation water.

In the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons, South Africa's fresh orange exports remained unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes, despite an increase in production. Benefiting from increased production of export-grade fruit and more favourable export conditions created by the depreciation of the South African rand, seasonal orange exports are expected to increase by 5 per cent to a record 1.36 million tonnes in 2022/23. China is currently the third largest export market for South African oranges, importing 96,892 tonnes in the 2021/22 season, up 33% from the previous season.

Fresh grapefruit

Driven by surging global demand, particularly in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, South Africa's grapefruit acreage has grown by nearly 18% over the past seven years, but the current weak global demand will slow its growth in the coming years. With almost negligible new acreage and shrinking old orchards, grapefruit acreage for the 2020/23 season is expected to increase only slightly to 8,477 hectares from 8,377 hectares in 2021/22.

In most growing areas, the 2021/22 rains came at the right time, with sustained and widespread rainfall throughout the season, adequate irrigation water and an increasing number of young trees beginning to bear fruit. Grapefruit production for the 2021/22 season is estimated at 416,000 tonnes, up 19% from 351,043 tonnes for the 2020/21 season. With higher than normal rainfall and a return to normal production, grapefruit production is expected to grow again to 420,000 tonnes in 2022/23.

Higher agricultural input costs and freight rates last season made the export of some grades of grapefruit unprofitable, and flooding near the harvest season affected shipping, making it a serious challenge to export grapefruit. As a result, South African grapefruit exports for the 2021/22 season were 237,753 tonnes, down 18% year-on-year. As some producing areas plan to reduce the packaging of Category 2 fruit for export and instead use it for domestic processing, grapefruit exports are expected to further decline to 220,000 tons in the 2022/23 season, down 8% from the 2021/22 season. China is the number one market for South African grapefruit exports in the 2021/22 season, accounting for 27%(63,470 tonnes) of its overseas sales, followed by the Netherlands (27%, 63,408 tonnes), Japan (10%, 22,866 tonnes) and Russia (8%, 19,4,269 tonnes).

Fresh citrus/orange

The planted area of citrus/tangerines in South Africa in 2021/22 increased by 2% to 26,677 hectares from 26,137 hectares in 2020/21. However, the growth in planted area is expected to slow down in the 2022/23 quarter and remain relatively stable at 26,977 hectares.

Citrus/tangerine production increased by 8% to 639,000 tonnes in 2021/22 compared to 591,000 tonnes in 2020/21, thanks to expanded planting area, favourable weather conditions and an increasing number of newly built orchards covering nets, which improved water efficiency, yield and overall quality of production. With good rainfall in the main producing areas in 2022/23 and more new plants entering full fruit, citrus/orange production is expected to increase by 6 per cent to 680,000 tonnes.

Due to higher production and more reasonable freight rates, citrus/orange exports are expected to increase by 7.5% in the 2022/23 season to a record 560,000 tonnes. South Africa exported 520,565 tonnes of oranges/tangerines in the 2020/22 season, up 3% from 506,768 tonnes in the 2020/21 season. The EU and the UK are the largest overseas markets for South African oranges/tangerines, accounting for 45% of total exports, followed by the US (10%), Russia (10%), the UAE (8%) and China (4%).

Fresh lemon/lime

The area planted with fresh lemons/limes is expected to stabilize at 17,550 hectares in 2022/23, as the number of new fruit trees is almost equal to the number of old trees lost. The rate of expansion of lemon acreage has slowed, with orchards five years and younger accounting for only 14% of the total area, compared to 50% for orchards six to ten years old.

South Africa's lemon/lime production reached a record 748,000 tonnes in the 2021/22 season, up 19% from 627,000 tonnes in the 2020/21 season. As a result of the hail disaster in the Eastern Cape, lemon/lime production for the 2022/23 season is expected to decline by 13% to 653,000 tonnes.

South Africa exported 557,000 tonnes of lemons/limes in the 2021/22 season, up 12% from 499,000 tonnes in the 2020/21 season, and this figure is expected to grow by another 2% to a record 570,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 season. The record exports are attributed to increased production of export grade lemons, continued growth in the EU and UK markets, and increased demand in the Middle East and Asia. The EU and the UK remain the main export markets for South Africa's lemons/limes, accounting for nearly 50% of total exports in the 2021/22 quarter. Following the relaxation of citrus cold handling requirements in August 2021, South African lemon exports to China in the 2021/22 season increased by more than 1,000 per cent to almost 9,000 tonnes.