In the "Australian Dairy Plan", the commitment of the Australian dairy industry is expounded, that is, to rebuild the confidence of dairy enterprises in the future of the industry and enhance the profitability of the dairy supply chain. In essence, the successful formation of a profitable, confident and united industry can restrain the recent uncertainty and decline, and drive the milk production to resume its growth momentum.

However, considering external constraints such as land, water and labor supply, what realistic expectations can we give to growth?

In order to guide and encourage discussions on the scope of the growth of the Australian dairy industry, the Australian Dairy Board has made an overall analysis of the historical growth trends and current and future potential constraints of each region. These forecasts are based on multi-year growth analysis and regional plans for the entire industry.

Although the COVID-19 epidemic will continue to affect value creation and the market may suffer further shocks, these forecasts still indicate the growing demand for dairy products in the global market and the medium-term optimistic outlook for milk prices .

The analysis results show that in the forecast concept of medium-speed growth, the industry can restore and maintain profitability, confidence and unity. By 2024-2025 (Fiscal Year 2025), milk production is expected to reach 9.6 billion liters. This is 1 billion liters more than the current projected output ("variable" forecast).
Starting from fiscal year 2025, external constraints such as resource availability will again grow slowly. Under the same forecast, the total national output will reach 10 billion liters in fiscal year 2030. On the other hand, the joint efforts of the government and industry to reduce and eliminate regional constraints are expected to bring about a forecast of "high growth" of up to 11.6 billion liters of output.

This value is slightly higher than the 11.2 billion liters of milk output in the history of the Australian dairy industry in the 2002 fiscal year. However, from a regional perspective, there is a certain degree of difference between the distribution of production and the past, and regions with fewer physical constraints and low existing growth barriers are expected to achieve higher production. These regions include the Gippsland region in eastern Victoria and southwest Victoria, as well as Tasmania, where milk production has been growing strongly in recent years.

Since the 2002 fiscal year, the Australian dairy industry has undergone significant changes, but the strong increase in milk production during the second half of the 2020 fiscal year makes people feel that this goal is possible.

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