News from Intrafish on December 15th, Rabobank analyst Gorjan Nikolik predicts that US-China relations and Brexit will be the main trade issues in 2021, but a series of other issues including recovery in the post-epidemic era will also Will affect global protein product trade.

Gorjan Nikolik said that overall, the tight supply of protein products has eased, but it has never fully recovered. Under the outgoing Trump regime, China’s imports of American pork and poultry have increased substantially.

 Although China is not expected to fully fulfill its obligations under the first phase of the bilateral trade agreement signed in early 2020, China may still be the main export destination of U.S. pork, poultry, and seafood in 2021.

The outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union may have a wider impact beyond the EU. Rabobank believes that the supply of pork and beef in the European Union will be surplus, while prices in the United Kingdom will rise. The standard will determine the source of the importer.

Gorjan Nikolik pointed out that seafood has suffered more losses in this epidemic than any other species, and that this damage will continue until 2021. Ecuadorian shrimp and Chilean salmon producers are doing their best to recover from the market caused by the COVID-19 virus. Recover from interruption.

Some producers have reduced the number of salmon spawning in 2021. It is expected that salmon prices will be higher in 2021, and global supply will be reduced by 8%-9%. Rabobank’s analysis is still optimistic about the prospects of shrimp products next year. Production is expected to rebound by 8%.

The recovery of the catering industry has provided space for seafood demand, and the retail industry and e-commerce platforms have opened up new sales channels for seafood. Gorjan Nikolik said that China accounts for half of the world's pork consumption. As pork producers in China and neighboring countries recover from the African swine fever outbreak in 2018, major supply chains are paying more attention to food safety and processing costs.

Gorjan Nikolik did not point out the direct link between African swine fever and increased consumption of seafood, but seafood is not considered a natural substitute for pork. Statistics show that with the increase in income, the consumption of domestic and imported fish in China is increasing. Rabobank pointed out that the demand for seafood in the Chinese market, especially the sales of imported seafood, is very flexible. The sales of aquaculture are growing faster than any other protein. This alone shows that it is getting more. Market share.

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