The International Grains Council (IGC), in its April monthly report, for the first time released its forecast for global grain supply and demand in 2022/23, predicting that global grain production in 2022/23 would reach 2.275 billion tons, 0.5% lower year-on-year, due to the conflict in the Black Sea’s effect over grain production.  

The IGC expects global maize production to fall by 13 million tonnes , sorghum by 2 million tonnes and wheat by 1 million tonnes next year.  But barley and oat yields are expected to increase.  The IGC cautioned that black Sea production figures could be adjusted in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainty over production in the region.  

The IGC expects global cereal consumption to reach a record to 2.302 billion tonnes in 2022/23, although feed and food use will grow at a slower rate than average because of high prices and the resulting rationing of demand.  Cereal consumption in 2021/22 is expected to reach 2.281 billion tonnes.  

IGC expects global maize production to fall by nearly 1.1% to 1.197 billion tonnes in 2022/23 and consumption to increase by 1.4% to 1.218 billion tonnes, resulting in stocks falling by 7.3% to 265 million tonnes.  

Global wheat consumption will increase 0.9% to 785 million tonnes in 2022/23, with stocks likely to fall 1.8% to 277 million tonnes.  

The IGC expects global soybean production to increase by 9.7% to 383 million tonnes in 2022/23. Consumption will rise 3.6% to 373 million tonnes and inventories will fall 7.3% to 265 million tonnes.  

Grain production increased in 2021/22  

The IGC raised its global cereal production forecast for 20221/22 in its monthly report, mainly because of a bumper corn harvest in Brazil.  The IGC expects global cereal production in 20221/22 to reach 2.287 billion tonnes, 3% higher year on year and 3 million tonnes higher than its March forecast.  Grain stocks are likely to rise by 7 million tonnes to 608 million tonnes, partly due to the disruption of Ukrainian exports due to the conflict with Russia.