According to the "World Livestock Market and Trade" report on April 11, the US Department of Agriculture has updated its forecast for 2023, predicting that world pork production and international trade will decline.

• Outlook

EU pork production is expected to decline by 3% year-on-year. The continuous improvement of relevant environmental regulations and the increase of feeding costs have led to a decline in the profits of farmers and may continue to inhibit production. EU exports to China, Japan and South Korea are expected to drop by a combined 10% as EU pork prices lose market competitiveness due to rising costs.

Pork production in Vietnam is expected to grow by 6% due to growing investment in the industry and gradual recovery from the impact of African swine fever (ASF).

Brazil's pork production is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year due to highly competitive prices and Brazil's domestic demand and exports remain strong.

As consumer demand remains strong, pork production in China is expected to increase slightly.

Canada's exports in 2023 are expected to decline by 4% year-on-year. The closure of some slaughterhouses and relatively high feed prices will weigh on Canadian pork production and reduce exports.

China's processed pork exports are expected to increase as Japan and Hong Kong, China, relax entry policy controls, which is expected to stimulate demand for Chinese processed pork products in hotels and catering establishments.

U.S. pork production is expected to increase slightly by 1% year-over-year, as hog slaughter, which has been strong, slowed in the first quarter of the year. U.S. pork exports are projected to increase slightly in 2023, with exports to China, Japan, and South Korea expected to increase slightly due to increased competitiveness in the U.S. market and declining EU exports.

• Global Forecast

World pork production is expected to reach 114.3 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% from 114.6 million tons in 2022.

Global exports are expected to fall from 9.89 million tons to 9.88 million tons, down 0.1% year-on-year.

Global imports are expected to fall to 10.6 million tonnes from 11.0 million tonnes, down 3.4% year-on-year.

Apparent consumption is expected to increase from 113.4 million tons to 113.7 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year.

• Intercontinental Forecast

Latin America is projected to be the region with the largest growth. The output in 2023 is expected to reach 8.08 million tons, an increase of 2.4% from 7.89 million tons in 2022; the export volume will reach 1.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; the import volume is expected to decrease by 0.3%, and the apparent consumption will increase by 1.5%.

Due to increased domestic supply in China and Vietnam, Asian production is expected to reach 63.4 million tons, up 0.5% year-on-year; imports are expected to increase by 0.1% to 5.7 million tons.

For the Americas as a whole, production is expected to increase by 1.2% to 22.5 million tons; imports are expected to decline by 4.3% to 2.69 million tons; exports are expected to increase by 0.4% to 6.14 million tons.

European production is expected to fall by 2.9% to 27.5 million tons; exports are expected to fall by 9.2% to 4.2 million tons.

African production is projected to increase by 3.2% to 500,000 tons.

Oceania production is forecast to fall 2.3% to 0.5 million tons.

• Country Forecast

China's pork production is expected to be 55.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year; imports are expected to reach 2.2 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year.

EU pork production is expected to be 21.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; exports are expected to reach 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; imports are expected to be 125,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.

U.S. pork production is expected to be 12.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%; exports are expected to reach 2.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%.

Although Japan's imports are expected to decline by 3.5%, it will still become the world's second largest pork importer with imports of 1.5 million tons.

Brazil's pork production is expected to be 4.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; exports are expected to reach 1.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%.

Mexico's pork production is expected to be 1.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Although imports are expected to decline by 1.6% to 1.27 million tons this year, Mexico will remain the world's third largest pork importer and the main importer in Latin America.