According to data from the Norwegian Seafood Board, as of the 26th week (June 26 - July 2), Norway exported 6,906 tons of frozen cod to China, down 58% from the same period last year. Year-to-date, Norwegian cod's share of the Chinese market has fallen from 40% to 23%.

Finn-Arne Egeness, chief seafood analyst at Nordea Bank, told UCN that this year's cod trade has defied many expectations. The decline in demand for Norwegian cod in China, the world's largest importer and processor of white fish, suggests that raw material costs are too high for Chinese processing companies to make a profit.

China's whitefish processing industry has continued to process and re-export the business model, Egeness speculated that the secondary frozen fish fillet market may have a decoupling relationship with the raw material market. "I think it's important that we explain that when raw material prices go up, Chinese processors are the losers, the market is biased towards chilled fillets and the competitiveness of secondary frozen fillets is reduced."

"There is a huge market for cod in the UK and I believe consumers are more likely to buy chilled cod fillets than re-frozen products. In addition, Poland and some Eastern European countries are also developing their own value-added product processing lines, which will also eat up some of China's share." "Egeness said.

"Finally, after the war in Ukraine, China has more opportunities to buy Russian cod. If Russian prices remain cheap, Chinese processing companies will of course give priority to Russia." "Egeness said.