Filippo Berio, the world's leading Italian olive oil company, predicts that after soaring to a peak in June this year, Brazilian olive oil prices could fall by more than 20% in 2025.

Brazilian website spacemoney reported on December 26 that the price of olive oil in Brazil began to rise in 2023 and peaked in June 2024 after continuing to rise for a full year. Due to the sharp increase in prices, some supermarkets in Brazil have even installed anti-theft seals for such products.

The price increase is due to the severe dry weather experienced in Europe in the past two years, resulting in a significant reduction in olive production, thus reducing the production of olive oil raw materials. Brazil produces very little olive oil locally, so the domestic market is largely dependent on European supplies, with most of the goods coming from Portugal and Spain. These two countries account for 44% and 14% of Brazil's total olive oil imports, respectively.

"The good news is that olive oil production in the Mediterranean Basin region will increase this year," said Leonardo Scandola, head of the company's operations in Latin America. According to EU data, olive oil production in EU countries will increase by 29% during the 2024/25 harvest compared to the 2023/24 harvest.

This increase has already had an impact on olive oil prices in Europe. "In the month of November alone, the price of olive oil in Spain fell by 20% [month-on-month]," Scandola said. This change will definitely eventually be felt in Brazil." He said it could take several months for the price movement to spread from Europe to Brazil. "Brazilian importers need to buy these cheaper olive oils. The goods they had in stock before cost more."

"I think from Easter next year we will see [Brazilian olive oil prices] start to come down significantly," the director predicted. The reduction could be more than 20 per cent compared to current prices."

Carlos Eduardo de Freitas Vian, professor of Agriculture at the University of Sao Paulo Luis de Queiroz (Esalq-USP), also sees a downward trend in olive oil prices. He said: "These goods need to go through a series of logistics, including shipping to Brazil and getting on the shelves, and all of this takes time." "I don't think [Brazilian olive oil prices] will start to fall until after mid-2025."