Before the Global Seafood Expo (SEG), Norwegian Bank (DNA) shared the latest market information at the salmon market research meeting. Since the beginning of this year, the retail price of Norwegian salmon on European supermarkets has risen sharply following the spot price, and the price increase of mid-to-high-end products Larger, lower-end product prices are stable.

Norges Bank analyst Alexander Aukner pointed out that from the end of 2021 to 2022, although the spot price of salmon has risen sharply, there has been no major fluctuation in European retail prices. Beginning from the end of 2022, this market inertia has been broken, and retail prices have also seen a large increase, especially for mid-to-high-end product types.

Aukner said that the price of other animal proteins such as beef and chicken will fall in 2023, which will appear relatively affordable to consumers, but the price of salmon has maintained an upward trend. "For some time to come, the spot price of farmed salmon may increase more than previously expected."

“Traditionally, a surge in spot salmon prices has meant increased demand, as measured by consumption. This year demand will go up another level, but we don’t see the possibility of a rebound in supply in the next few years. In the past, one or two years of low supply would boost production growth, but so far, we have not seen this trend," Aukner said.

"In the first and second quarters of 2023, salmon spot prices can be described as 'spectacular', and producers who can produce large quantities of high-quality salmon will reap very substantial profits. The contract volume will continue to decline, which means that more and more More and more salmon is entering the spot market. The same is true for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, and in the second half of 2023, the increase in spot market supply will force prices from their highs," Aukner said.

Norges Bank predicts that the average spot price of Norwegian salmon will be around NOK 90/kg ($8.50/kg) in 2023, and the average price in 2024 and 2025 will be around NOK 87/kg.