Recently, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the "2022 US Agricultural Products Export Yearbook". The yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural exports to global markets for the 2022 calendar year and analyzes 17 major export destination markets, including China.

The Yearbook is compiled based on trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau under the U.S. Department of Commerce. Data on U.S. exports to overseas markets comes from the national statistical agencies of the countries covered in the report through Trade Data Monitor.

The yearbook shows the top 13 export product groups for US agricultural exports in 2022, accounting for 73% of the total for that year. It presents the top 17 largest agricultural product export markets in the United States, which together accounted for more than 80% of the total agricultural product exports of the United States that year.

01 Overview of Export Situation of US Agricultural Products in 2022

In 2022, U.S. agricultural and food exports to global markets will total $196 billion, an increase of 11 percent, or $19.5 billion, from 2021 and a record high. The overall export volume of agricultural products in commodities fell by 6% compared with 2021, and this performance was attributed to the historically high agricultural product prices.

Soybeans, corn, beef and beef products, dairy products, cotton, and tree nuts are the United States' top exports, accounting for more than half of its total agricultural exports. At the same time, the export value of eight agricultural products, including soybeans, reached a record level.

02 U.S. Soybean Exports

• Review and Outlook

Total U.S. soybean exports to global markets set a record in 2021 and reached another record high in 2022, reaching $34.4 billion, an increase of 26%, or $7 billion. Soybeans, which account for more than one-third of all U.S. export growth in 2022, remain the nation's top agricultural export commodity. Export volumes were largely driven by higher prices, while strong demand for protein in most major export markets also contributed to a sharp rise in export volumes.

China remains the largest export market for U.S. soybeans. In 2022, U.S. soybean exports to China will account for more than half of U.S. soybean exports. As the impact of African swine fever on the industry and related prices gradually weakens, and the Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, the market demand is also growing. Much of the rest of the increase in U.S. soybean exports came from Mexico, the European Union, Egypt and Japan.

• Key Drivers of the Export Market

In 2022, the unit price of US soybean exports will increase by 16% compared with 2021, mainly due to the tight supply in South America and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine dispute.

· China's economy is recovering well, the impact of African swine fever on the industry and related prices has gradually weakened, and the export of soybeans from the United States to China has increased significantly.

· U.S. soybean exports to Mexico rose 39 percent to a record high, driven by strong demand from the local livestock sector.

· U.S. soybeans gained some of their market share in the European Union and gained market share for the first time in four years as Brazil's soybean harvest was affected by dry weather.

• Export Market Outlook

U.S. soybean exports are expected to decline to 54.2 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year ending September 2023, as production is down from the previous year while domestic crush demand remains on the rise. Exports of U.S. soybeans to the EU are expected to be lower, offset by higher sunflowerseed and rapeseed processing, and lower EU soybean crush demand. In addition, Brazil's soybean production has reached record levels, and U.S. soybean exports may face greater competition, which may be particularly intense in the fall of 2023, when the next soybean harvest in the United States begins. As South American soybean production continues to expand, export competition may limit potential future growth in U.S. soybean exports.

03 Chinese Market Situation

• Review and Outlook

China is the largest export market for US agricultural products and the largest import market for food and agricultural products in the world. In 2022, Brazil will still be China's largest supplier of agricultural products, accounting for 24% of the market share, followed by the United States with a market share of 19%.

In 2022, U.S. agricultural exports to China will reach another peak, reaching $38 billion, a 16% increase from the previous year's record high. Although the export volume of many products has declined, the sharp increase in agricultural product prices and the resilience of market demand have helped to promote US agricultural exports to China.

Soybean is one of the product categories leading the year-on-year growth of US agricultural exports to China. Its export value accounts for nearly half of the total US agricultural exports to China, reaching a record US$17.9 billion. In 2022, affected by the severe drought in South America, the dispute between Russia and Ukraine, and the palm oil export ban issued by Indonesia, the average export price of US soybeans will increase by 14%.

• The main driving factors of the Chinese market

· The prices of agricultural products reached historical highs.

· The market demand for soybeans and other products is strong.

· Less competition for agricultural products such as soybeans from other exporting countries.

· The economy recovered from the 2018-2019 Sino-US trade dispute and the impact of the new crown epidemic.

• China Market Outlook

The demand for imported food and agricultural products in the Chinese market will continue, and it is expected that US exports to China will remain strong in 2023. The Chinese pig industry's ability to prevent African swine fever has been significantly improved, and the pig industry is gradually recovering, which may promote the growth of US feed raw material exports. Global supplies of grains and oilseeds are tighter than in the past four years. As China optimizes and adjusts the prevention and control measures of the new crown epidemic, consumer demand is strong, and consumer demand in hotels, restaurants, and corporate groups recovers. Under the combined effect of higher commodity prices, the United States will maintain or approach record-breaking exports to China.