According to German media Mundus-agri, African food ingredient supplier Ofi said that the current macadamia nut market is still very quiet as buyers in Europe and the United States still have sufficient stocks, but the overall demand for macadamia nut kernels is strong. Some of the key growers, including South Africa and Australia, are expected to produce less, so there may be some shortage of global macadamia nut supply during December and February. It will take several months for the new crop to arrive, and carryover stocks from the previous season can be very low. Ofi experts believe that the price of macadamia nuts has been rising for a long time, but has stabilized in recent weeks.

In South Africa, market participants expect production to decline slightly. The current forecast of 76,753 tonnes is 3.7% lower than last year and 12% lower than forecast at the beginning of the season. This was mainly due to heavy rainfall at the beginning of the season and a relatively cool summer, both of which negatively impacted yields as well as the size and quality of macadamia nuts.

Kenya's production may also not be as high as initially forecast, but it is still likely to reach 44,000 tonnes, 3.5% higher than last year's production. China has been buying more macadamia nut from Kenyan exporters since the temporary lifting of an export ban on the fruit late last year, and the price of the fruit has soared as a result. In contrast, exports of Hawaiian nuts have declined this year. Ofi said the lifting of the export ban is likely to be extended for another six months, which will also have a significant impact on exports in the next quarter.

In Australia, production this year is up 5% on last year, but below initial forecasts for the new season. A total of 50,830 tons of macadamia nuts were reported to have been harvested. At the beginning of the season, growers faced many challenges, such as high temperatures and rainy weather, but weather conditions improved towards the end of the season.