Gorjan Nikolik, chief seafood industry analyst at Rabobank, predicts that China's shrimp product imports are expected to exceed 1 million tons in 2023.

According to data from the International Trade Center (ITC), China will import 955,000 tons of shrimp products (including cold-water shrimp and value-added warm-water shrimp) in 2022, an increase of 290,000 tons over 2021, equivalent to Thailand's annual export volume; the amount of shrimp product imports reached 6.29 billion US dollars, a substantial increase of 55% over the previous year.

At the same time, the increase in imports of shrimp products has led to an increase in the total import of seafood for the year. In 2022, the total import of seafood will be about 19.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 35% over the previous year, and the total import will reach 4.19 million tons, an increase of 21%.

Nikolik said: "Recently, I talked with Ecuadorian suppliers on the phone. They are very optimistic about the future market. The Chinese market is very suitable for crustaceans. The price of shrimp this year is relatively low. The global shrimp industry needs a strong Chinese market."

"When the average income of Chinese consumers increases by 4% or 5%, the import demand for crustaceans and marine fish will increase by 10% to 12%, which is about twice the increase in income. In other words, the Chinese market has a strong demand for imported seafood The demand is highly elastic. China’s economic growth rate is expected to be 5% this year, so the import demand of 1 million tons is completely achievable.” Nikolik said.

Cui He, president of the China Aquatic Products Processing and Marketing Association (CAPPMA), agreed with Nikolik's forecast.

Nikolik said that when Chinese consumers fully accept life in the post-epidemic era, the growth in 2024 will be even greater. "According to what I have learned from my Chinese colleagues, consumers still have a little panic about the new crown epidemic. We have to focus on 2024, and consumption will rise further."

Last year, Ecuador exported 565,000 tons of frozen shrimp products to China, an increase of 49% compared to 2021. India followed with exports of 137,000 tonnes, up 17%. In terms of trade volume, China's imports of shrimp products from Ecuador and India totaled US$3.54 billion and US$924 million, an increase of 63% and 28% respectively.

In addition, the import value of Vietnamese shrimp was 251 million US dollars, the import value of Thai shrimp was 241 million US dollars, the import value of Argentina (wild red shrimp) and Saudi vannamei shrimp was 146 million US dollars and 109 million US dollars respectively.

Nikolik said that in 2023, shrimp farming countries around the world will benefit from the Chinese market. “For example, China has or had a national policy of food self-sufficiency, maybe 10 years ago, China was implementing this policy. But in my opinion, for a long time, at least in the seafood sector, The policy of self-sufficiency has largely been abandoned."

Nikolik believes that crustacean products are so popular with consumers in China, and the growth prospects of the global industry are very optimistic, especially wild crab and lobster products. Supply of king crab, Boston lobster, rock lobster and cold-water prawns is constrained by catch yields, while farmed shrimp does not have many growth bottlenecks.

"For wild seafood, China's demand is growing, but supply is not. So it's not surprising that Aulong sells to China for as much as US$100 per kilogram, which is the result of growing demand and no increase in supply. "

"Among all the species favored by Chinese consumers, farmed vannamei shrimp is still the species with the greatest growth potential. Its market is very mature and will continue to grow." Nikolik said, "According to previous precedents, farmed shrimp will This is undoubtedly a blessing for Latin American countries such as Ecuador, which constitute the vast majority of China's seafood import growth."

On the other hand, pollock and other wild whitefish have yet to take off in the Chinese market. "When we saw the huge success of KFC in the fried chicken market in China, I wondered why Pollock couldn't be successful in the same way?"

"With the growth of China's economy, the scarcity of China's domestic seafood resources will further stimulate the growth of imports. From the perspective of China's population base, its arable land area, coastline, clean water, etc. are limited resources, which do not appear to be Richer than Western countries, and even compared to the West, China's per capita resource scarcity is unbelievable. However, Chinese consumers' appetite for seafood has never been satisfied." Nikolik said.

"China's population has reached the peak in history, and the remaining young labor force will increasingly move away from agriculture and aquaculture. According to the analysis of Rabobank, China became a net importer of seafood last year, and the trade deficit will further expand. If If you look at Europe, we import about $35 billion, we export $7 billion, we have a deficit of $28 billion, and you look at the United States, they import $29 billion, they export $5 billion, and we have a deficit of $24 billion. China just Beyond zero, how long will it take them to reach $20 billion in net imports?" Nikolik said.