According to Thailand's Chunghwa Daily, Dr. Yin, director of the International Trade Research Center at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, released a durian risk index research report, pointing out that it will be difficult to maintain the previous high growth rate for Thai durian in the five years starting from 2022.  
   
Due to its high dependence on the Single Chinese market, the price of Durian in Thailand depends on whether the Chinese market increases durian imports.  Durian cultivation in northeastern Thailand has increased nearly sixfold in the past decade, with many farmers growing rubber, cassava and other crops switching to durian.  Annual durian production in Thailand is expected to increase by 338,000 tons from 2022 to 2026, a five-fold increase over the past decade.  
   
Durian prices in Thailand are estimate to average 146 baht/kg (¥28.27 yuan/kg or $ 4.2 USD) in the next five years, mainly depending on the demand in the Chinese market.  At the same time, durian production will increase in Asia Pacific and globally. Global total output may increase by 1.8 times, export volume will increase by 2.2 times and domestic sales volume will increase by 1.7 times.  The global output will increase yearly by 612,000 tons and exports will increase yearly by 274,000 tons.  
   
Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and other ASEAN member states will also continue to increase production of durian, posing a new challenge to Thailand's durian export.  Durian production is expected to increase by 44.9% in Malaysia, 28.9% in Indonesia and 44% in the Philippines.  Vietnam is expected to increase production by 93.9% to more than 700,000 tons a year.  Cambodia will produce 210,000 tonnes a year, Laos 130,000 tonnes and Myanmar 60,000 tonnes.  
   
Durian prices will rise in the next five years if China-Thailand relations are good, durian consumption increases in the Chinese market and Durian quality is good in Thailand, the report said.  Factors that could trigger the price drop include problems in China-Thailand relations, declining durian quality, mass durian production in China and other countries, counterfeiting, cross-border transport, weather, industry monopoly, labor shortage, impact of the epidemic and production situation in Thailand.